Clean Car Standards
Op-Ed: Clarifying Clean Car 'Rollbacks'.
According to an op-ed by S. Kent Hoekman in the Reno Gazette-Journal, “Re: ‘Fighting
against clean car rollbacks,’ April 22: I am writing to correct some misperceptions given in a recent opinion column by Nevada’s attorney general, Aaron Ford, regarding vehicle emission standards. During its waning days, the Obama administration expedited
a determination that the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) of new vehicles (colloquially known as gas mileage standards) should increase at a rate of 5% per annum over the period of 2022 to 2025. The final rule just issued by the Trump administration changed
this to a 1.5% per annum increase from 2022 to 2026. While this new fuel economy increase may not be as large as the attorney general would like, it is still an increase, which presents a significant challenge for the automakers to meet. It should also be
pointed out that the vehicle emission species being regulated by these new standards is carbon dioxide (CO2). There are no regulatory changes with respect to the four classes of criteria pollutant emissions (carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, oxides of nitrogen,
and fine particulate matter) that are associated with air pollution and adverse human health. Thus, there is no direct connection between these revised CAFE rules and harmful pollutant emissions from motor vehicles. Mentioning asthma, lung disease and COVID-19
in connection with these new vehicle standards is irrelevant. Furthermore, Attorney General Ford’s comment that ‘high mile-per-gallon cars also put money into the pocketbooks of Nevada’s drivers’ is a bit misleading. A Nevada driver must first take a considerable
amount of money out of his or her pocketbook to buy a new vehicle.” [Reno Gazette-Journal,
4/28/20
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States
Chicago Requires New Residential, Commercial Construction Include EV Charging Capabilities.
According to Utility Dive, “Chicago officials say the new ordinance was developed in
response to growing EV adoption across the United States, and the expectation that by 2040 more than half of all new car sales will be electric. ‘Having more electric vehicles and fewer gas-powered vehicles on our streets will help move Chicago closer toward
meeting its ambitious climate goals in the years to come,’ Mayor Lori Lightfoot said in a statement. Chicago has committed to power all of its municipal buildings with renewable energy by 2025, and all city buildings by 2035. The Chicago Transit Authority
plans to electrify its fleet of over 1,850 buses by 2040. ‘Analysts have forecasted exponential growth in EVs over the next two decades, and Chicago must be ready,’ Alderman Brendan Reilly, chief sponsor of the measure, said in a statement. ‘Readiness starts
with ensuring our municipal code anticipates the need for charging resources and other assets that will optimize the performance of our transportation network and minimize costs for electricity consumers, as EVs proliferate.’ The city ordinance also requires
at least one of the EV-ready spaces be accessible to people with disabilities. New buildings must have charging infrastructure in place or actual charging stations installed during construction, according to analysis of the ordinance by the Natural Resources
Defense Council. ‘As of now, the ordinance does not apply to existing buildings,’ according to NRDC.” [Utility Dive,
4/28/20
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Minnesota To Pilot Electric School Bus Program.
According to KSTP, “Volkswagen paid a hefty price in 2016 after the German car-maker
was caught cheating in particulate emissions testing. They agreed to a $2.9 billion settlement. As a result of the settlement, each state received a share of the funds proportional to its number of Volkswagens, money earmarked for reduction of air pollution
caused by fossil fuels. Minnesota will receive a total of $47 million from the national VW settlement over the course of 10 years, beginning in 2018. In the state’s second phase of the settlement, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) has earmarked 65%
of available funds to support electrifying our transportation sector. MPCA will invest approximately $7 million in eligible heavy-duty electronic vehicles like trucks and transit buses, $4.7 million in electric school buses, and $3.5 million in EV charging
stations. The MPCA is currently seeking input from stakeholders to design a pilot project that will address school districts’ transportation needs and budgets, and be better equipped for successful implementation of electric school buses. They expect the initial
pilot program would put at least six electric school buses on the road for further study by the Fall of 2022 ‘They’ll report how it’s going, many of the details about the maintenance and the training,’ said Rebecca Place, MPCA Electric Vehicle Coordinator.
‘You don’t actually receive any funding until after a diesel bus has been destroyed and a new, all-new electric bus is purchased.’” [KSTP,
4/28/20
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California Scales Up 1st-In-US Electric Truck Sale Proposal.
According to CBS Sacramento, “California regulators on Tuesday strengthened a proposed
first-in-the-nation rule that would force auto makers to sell more electric delivery vans and work trucks in a state with the country’s worst air quality. The updated rule proposed by the California Air Resources Board would require auto makers to sell a certain
percentage of zero-emission trucks each year. By 2035, the board estimates at least 20% of these trucks on the road would be electric. ‘This will be transformative,’ said Paul Cort, an attorney for Earthjustice’s Right to Zero campaign. ‘At some point, these
manufacturers are going to kind of realize it doesn’t make sense to be making zero emission trucks and combustion trucks to serve the same market.’ The new rule is a big jump from the one the board had previously proposed, which would have ensured at least
4% of these trucks on the road were electric. Environmental groups complained the rule was not strong enough, and board members heard them. Regulators will take public comments on the new rule for the next 30 days, with a final vote from the board expected
in June. If adopted, at least 40% of all tractor trailers sold in California would have to be zero emission by 2035. For smaller trucks, including models like the Ford F-250, 55% of all sales would be zero emission. The standard is the toughest for delivery
trucks and vans, with 75% of sales required to be zero emission by 2035. California already has similar rules for sales of passenger vehicles. But truck manufacturers have said it’s not fair to apply similar rules to their industry because their customers
are investing in vehicles that must return a profit.” [CBS Sacramento, 4/28/20
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N.Y. Officials Warn Virus Could Damage EV Growth For Years.
According to E&E News, “The coronavirus pandemic could ‘diminish’ progress for years
on New York’s electric vehicle programs if regulators don’t act now, state officials and industry leaders warned this week. The warnings came in a series of regulatory filings from the state’s major utilities, electric automakers, EV charging providers and
New York City’s transit agency, among others. They are asking regulators to expand a $580 million charger plan in order to soften the pandemic’s impacts on clean transportation. That plan, proposed by regulatory staff in the state’s Department of Public Service
in January, would put utilities in charge of identifying the best sites for building new chargers and upgrading nearby grid infrastructure. Most of the costs associated with the preparations, meanwhile, would be covered by new incentives. The framework is
backed by Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has praised it for encouraging ‘accelerated, forward-thinking development of charging infrastructure.’ That was before COVID-19 paralyzed much of New York, which has recorded more coronavirus cases than China. An
economic recession is likely to cause potential customers of EV chargers to tighten their belts, said six New York power utilities in a joint filing, while public transit agencies and an EV industry coalition said in other filings that fleet operators would
face the prospect of choosing between electrification and routine maintenance. The utilities said the charger plan’s incentives should be expanded to cover 100% of the costs associated with preparing the grid to accommodate the new stations.” [E&E News,
4/29/20
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Auto Manufacturers
Ford Delays Commercial Automated Vehicle Launch To 2022.
According to Forbes, “Over the past month as much of the world has hunkered down trying to limit the spread of the coronavirus, one
of the most frequent questions that comes up is the fate of the all the big ticket product plans that automakers had committed to. Top of the list are all the electric and automated vehicles (AV) that were supposed to start rolling out imminently. During its
first quarter earnings call, where it reported a net loss of $2 billion, Ford chief operating officer Jim Farley provided some insight into his company’s thinking with the revelation that the commercial launch of its AVs would be pushed back into 2022. Ever
since mid-2016 when former CEO Mark Fields announced Ford’s intention to build AVs, the target launch date has been 2021. This is the first time the launch has slipped, but Ford spokesman Dan Pierce made it clear that the delay isn’t for technical reasons.
The team at Argo AI which is developing the automated driving (AD) system has continued to work during the quarantine period, relying mostly on simulation to continue making progress on its software while the vehicles remain mostly parked. Argo does also have
access to a closed test track in the Pittsburgh area that they are making some use of. The delay in the commercial launch will give Ford some time evaluate the lasting impacts of the current pandemic on consumer behavior. Even before the pandemic, Farley had
indicated that Ford was leaning more towards goods delivery than ride-hailing.” [Forbes,
4/28/20
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Tesla Reports Earnings After Shutting Factories In China, California.
According to Forbes, “After two positive quarters in a row, will the third time also be a charm for Tesla (TSLA)? As a whole, analysts
see that as unlikely, as the consensus estimate is for the company to post a loss of $0.36 per share when it reports after the close on Wednesday, April 29. But the nature of surprises means you never know when they’ll happen—like TSLA’s shocker of a Q3 2019
earnings report that showed per-share earnings of $1.86 when market watchers were expecting a loss of $0.42. Last quarter’s EPS beat expectations and marked the first time the company reported two consecutive quarters in the black. But that was before COVID-19
forced the company to shut down manufacturing in China and California. With the hit to production coupled with the general economic distress that may cause people to buy fewer cars, it remains to be seen whether TSLA can hit its previous guidance of more than
500,000 vehicles delivered this year. Investors will probably be looking for whether the electric car maker revises that figure in light of COVID-19. Like many other earnings reports this season, when investors tune in to TSLA’s results this week, they may
be more interested in what management might say about its outlook for the second quarter and beyond than they are in the past quarter’s results. If social sentiment is a guide, data from LikeFolio show that purchase intent mentions on TSLA’s Model 3 are down
37% versus the year-ago quarter (see figure 1 below).” [Forbes, 4/28/20
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Tesla Owners In The UK Drive More Miles Per Year Than In Any Other Brand.
According to Electrek, “The UK’s RAC Foundation, a transport policy group, studied the mileage covered by motorists in Great Britain.
RAC discovered that Tesla drivers cover more miles per year, on average, that owners of any other car. In the first three years of owning a new car, Tesla drivers cover an average of 12,459 miles a year. Meanwhile, Mercedes owners clocked 12,100 miles each
year, and Volvo owners averaged 11,578 miles. According to the data, sourced from the Ministry of Transport (MOT), the newest cars in Great Britain do an average of 10,377 miles in each of the first three years after they are registered. That’s an average
of 28 miles per day. The study, which was based on MOT data from 516,936 vehicles, predated the steep decline in travel due to the pandemic. What’s particularly fascinating is that Tesla EVs put on about the same number of miles as new diesel cars, which historically
have been the long-distance, quasi-efficient model of choice for Europeans. (Emissions are an entirely different matter!) The RAC data showed new diesel vehicles averaging 12,496 miles in a year, just 37 more miles than a new Tesla. Gas vehicles, on average,
clocked 7,490 miles per year. Few EVs have the same range capability as what Tesla offers. So as a category, pure battery-electric vehicles averaged 9,435 miles. The data reveals that owners of smaller EVs with lower range don’t nearly add the same distance
in a year.” [Electrek, 4/28/20
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Ford And Lincoln Cancel Rivian-Powered Electric Vehicle Due To The Pandemic.
According to The Verge, “Ford and its luxury brand Lincoln have canceled an all-electric SUV that was going to be powered by technology
provided by EV startup Rivian, the companies told Automotive News on Tuesday. Lincoln says it is still working closely with Rivian, including an ‘alternative vehicle’ that will also be based on Rivian’s electric vehicle skateboard platform. ‘Given the current
environment, Lincoln and Rivian have decided not to pursue the development of a fully electric vehicle based on Rivian’s skateboard platform. Our strategic commitment to Lincoln, Rivian and electrification remains unchanged and Lincoln’s future plans will
include an all-electric vehicle,’ a spokesperson from Lincoln told The Verge in a statement. Lincoln declined to say what specifically about the pandemic led to the cancellation. ‘This was a decision that was mutually made by Lincoln and Rivian given the rapidly
changing environment and after a review of product plans,’ the spokesperson said. ‘As we moved through the development cycle, we determined that it would be better to pivot from the Rivian’s skateboard platform and focus our development efforts on Lincoln’s
own fully-electric vehicle.’ Amy Mast, Rivian’s public relations director, said ‘Ford and Lincoln continue to be great partners.’ Rivian recently announced that it’s pushing back the release of its first two vehicles — an all-electric pickup truck and SUV
— to early 2021 because of the pandemic. Ford announced a $500 million investment in Rivian last year, just two months after Amazon led a $700 million investment in the Michigan-based startup.” [The Verge,
4/28/20
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Lincoln Cancels Use Of Rivian’s Technology For Its First Electric Vehicle.
According to Electrek, “The effects of the global pandemic are expected to force automakers into alliances to cover development costs
for expensive technology. But Ford confirmed today that it canceled plans to use Rivian’s electric skateboard platform for a Lincoln-badged electric vehicle. Ford still plans to produce a Lincoln EV but is using its own technology. In April 2019, Ford invested
a half billion dollars in Rivian. Less than a year later, in January 2020, Ford announced that it would work with Rivian on a new EV to be badged as a Lincoln. At the time, Joy Falotico, president of the Lincoln Motor Company, said: Working with Rivian marks
a pivotal point for Lincoln as we move toward a future that includes fully electric vehicles. This vehicle will take Quiet Flight to a new place — zero emissions, effortless performance, and connected and intuitive technology. It’s going to be stunning. Ford
had confirmed that the new Lincoln battery electric vehicle will be built on Rivian’s platform: The Lincoln battery electric vehicle will be built off of Rivian’s flexible skateboard platform and is part of Ford Motor Company’s planned equity investment in
Rivian. This all-new vehicle also is part of Ford’s previously announced investment of more than $11.5 billion into electrification, which includes the Mustang Mach-E and a fully electric version of the best-selling F-150 pickup. However, Ford communicated
on its employee website today that a ‘rapidly changing environment’ led the company to reconsider its plans with Rivian.” [Electrek,
4/28/20
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Ford And Rivian Cancel Plan For Electric SUV.
According to E&E News, “Ford Motor Co. took a step back from its partnership with electric vehicle upstart Rivian yesterday as it scrapped
plans to build a luxury sport utility vehicle, citing ‘the current environment.’ The joint announcement by Lincoln, a division of Ford, and Rivian affects a future Lincoln model that was to be one of the first fruits of a $500 million investment that Ford
made in Rivian this time last year. The decision underscored the challenging outlook for electric vehicles, which ask huge investments by automakers that are navigating one of the biggest financial nosedives in history due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite
the news, Lincoln and Ford suggested yesterday that their roadmap for electrification is intact. ‘Our strategic commitment to Lincoln, Rivian and electrification remains unchanged and Lincoln’s future plans will include an all-electric vehicle,’ a Lincoln
spokesman told The Verge. Rivian is a new maker of electric pickups and SUVs that snared huge investments from Ford and from Amazon.com Inc. last year. Earlier this month, Rivian said its vehicle launches — based on its ‘skateboard’ frame for EVs — would be
delayed from the end of this year to early next. The headwinds facing Ford became more clear yesterday. Announcing its earnings for the first quarter of the year, Ford said its cash flow had plunged by more than $2 billion and its revenue by $6 billion ‘as
protecting people and helping society respond to the crisis became primary measures of current success’ along with financial and operational performance.” [E&E News,
4/29/20
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Electric Vehicles
The 5 Stages Of EV Denial & Why Tesla Stays Ahead.
According to Clean Technica, “It’s been nearly a century since any automaker was in a more enviable position than Tesla. Technology and design of zero-emission vehicles has improved
dramatically in recent years. Yet, to catch up with Tesla innovation and marketability and be competitive in the fast-moving EV segment, legacy automakers need to switch to forward thinking, major investments, and extreme dedication. It’s just not happening.
They aren’t true competitors to Tesla. Instead, legacy automakers continue to do the bare minimum to promote EVs at a time when it’s crucial to move to a transportation framework of the future that mitigates carbon emissions. The auto industry is in a stagnant
state of EV denial. For legacy automakers, the EV denial process began decades ago. Not an invention of the contemporary era, the electric car has a long and storied history. Indeed, by the turn of the 20th century, EVs were are all the rage in the US, accounting
for around 1/3 of all vehicles on the road. All you have to do is visit the Elliott Museum in Stuart, Florida, and you’ll see an exhibit of the earliest autos to hit the roads. Alongside the 1903 Stanley Steamer Runabout, the 1903 Cadillac Model A Runabout,
and the 1912 Ford Model T Speedster is a 1914 Detroit Electric. At that point, neither internal combustion engine (ICE) or electric was seen as across-the-board preferable to the other, and, in fact, the cleanliness and ease of use of electric cars made it
seem to many as if electric would surpass other transportation technologies. Famously, Henry Ford’s wife drove an electric car.” [Clean Technica,
4/28/20 (=)]
Pandemic Threatens EV Battery Supply, Giving Power To South Korean Battery-Makers.
According to Electrek, “The Korea Herald reports that pre-pandemic shortages of battery supply, which caused delays for European automakers, have been made worse by the global crisis.
The situation became urgent enough for the Polish government to waive travel restrictions, allowing 200 LG Chem technicians to resume expansion of its battery gigafactory in Wroclaw. The move was made at least in part to avoid disruptions in battery supply
to European automakers, including Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, and Renault. Critically, battery supply constraints previously caused production halts and delays for the Audi E-tron, Jaguar I-Pace, Mercedes-Benz EQC, and Kia electric vehicles. Korean Herald
quotes an industry source: When the current game of chicken ends, the EV battery market will be controlled by a handful of suppliers. The Polish government waived its two-week quarantine requirement for LG Chem employees who have tested negative for COVID-19
in Korea. Also, on April 5, the Hungarian government allowed SK Innovation to dispatch some 300 employees on a chartered flight to the country to restart the company’s EV battery plant in Komarom despite its entry ban on all foreign nationals since March 16.
An industry source said: Everyone is asking for more batteries, but supplies are limited. This allows EV battery makers to stand almost equal in the power game with automakers. The EV market is growing rapidly, but there are only a few who can manufacture
high-quality EV batteries.” [Electrek,
4/28/20 (=)]
SK Innovation To Start Construction Of Second EV Battery Plant In U.S.
According to Reuters, “South Korea’s SK Innovation Co Ltd, a supplier for Volkswagen and Ford Motors, said on Tuesday it will spend $727 million to build a second electric vehicle
(EV) battery plant in the United States. It will begin construction of the factory in July and aim to start production in 2023, the company said in a statement. It did not say where the factory will be located. At one time it had indicated that it may build
a second plant in the state of Georgia. It will make a further investment in its second U.S. factory, bringing total spending to about $1.5 billion, an SK Innovation spokesperson told Reuters, but did not give a timeframe. The company is currently building
its first factory in the United States, in Georgia, with a planned investment of 1.2 trillion won ($903 million). The 9.8 GWh factory will serve Volkswagen’s EV base in neighbouring Tennessee, with production on track to begin in 2022. The proposed No.2 plant
will have an annual capacity of 11.7 gigawatt-hours of batteries. SK Innovation, South Korea’s biggest oil refiner, has rapidly expanded into EV batteries, with factories in South Korea, China and Hungary. SK Innovation is also currently involved in a legal
battle in the United States with its South Korean rival LG Chem Ltd , in which a win for LG Chem could stop SK Innovation importing EV batteries and components. Researcher Wood Mackenzie this month forecast that global electric vehicle (EV) sales would drop
43% this year to 1.3 million vehicles because of the coronavirus outbreak, lower oil prices and a wait-and-see approach to buying new models.” [Reuters,
4/28/20 (=)]
The COVID-19 Pandemic As A Harbinger Of An Electric Vehicle Future.
According to Seeking Alpha, “The 50th anniversary of Earth Day was celebrated last week in an event that prompted no shortage of comparisons between the world’s current response to
the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and its potential future response to climate change. These comparisons have touched on the ‘keep it in the ground’ environmental movement, proponents of which argue that most of the planet’s proved fossil fuel reserves will need
to remain underground and unburned if catastrophic climate change is to be averted. Policies to ensure such a result would necessarily cause fossil fuel prices to fall to zero or lower on widespread demand destruction, and the comparison did not go unnoticed
by supporters of the ‘Green New Deal’ when Earth Day 2020 coincided with negative front-month petroleum prices. I believe that such comparisons can be overstated. It is true that global fossil fuel demand has fallen sharply in response to the coronavirus-inspired
implementation of social distancing measures around most of the world, causing global greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions to decline in turn. The experiences of the last six weeks have also shown us just how difficult it is to greatly reduce our energy demand even
temporarily, let alone for the rest of our lives. In the absence of the replacement of most fossil fuel capacity by sustainable energy resources worldwide, though, the required level of emissions reductions can only be achieved through energy demand destruction.
Ordinary people around the world are seeing exactly what this climate policy-induced demand destruction would entail in terms of consumers’ behavioral changes.” [Seeking Alpha,
4/28/20 (=)]
Why The Electric Vehicle Wave Is Still Coming.
According to Green Biz, “If you look at the 2020 annual estimates for global electric vehicle sales, it sure seems grim. Wood Mackenzie predicts that because of the pandemic and resulting
economic disruption, sales of EVs around the world will drop by 43 percent this year. Automakers that sell vehicles to consumers tend to be hit hard by macroeconomic trends, and with a dramatic recession emerging, potential buyers are likely to buy fewer cars
in general — let alone electric models that are newer to the market. So we’re looking at an EV industry that could see a contraction by almost half in a crucial year that was formerly expected to be an important breakout year for EVs. Yeah, that’s not good.
But let’s all take a deep breath and look at the bigger picture. The longer-term forecasts are much, much brighter. Core industry, technology, environmental and policy shifts have been happening over the past decade that will continue to ensure that electric
vehicles continue on their trajectory to eventually reach the mainstream car buyer. Here are four trends to remember that will keep EVs moving forward, and ultimately, yes, still, one day dominating transportation: 1. Economics: The price of lithium-ion batteries
— which power the bulk of electric vehicles — dropped by 87 percent between 2010 and 2019 and is expected to continue to drop below $100 per kilowatt-hour by 2024, predicts the researchers at Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).” [Green Biz,
4/28/20 (=)]
Medical Masks Are Protecting China’s Electric-Vehicle Champion.
According to the Wall Street Journal, “BYD 1211 7.73% sold more electric vehicles last year than any other company except Tesla. This year, the company is having more luck selling
other products—notably medical masks. The Chinese auto maker, in which Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway owns a roughly 8% stake, said Tuesday that its net profit in the latest quarter plunged 85% year over year. That isn’t a surprise given the impact of
the coronavirus outbreak on China’s already-weak car market in February and March. Total electric-vehicle sales in the country fell 59% in the first quarter compared with the same period of 2019. BYD did even worse, selling 70% fewer so-called new-energy cars.
Ironically, the company’s gasoline cars were a bright spot: Sales there were down just 12%, boosted by its new sport-utility vehicle Song Pro, which was launched in the second half of 2019. Nonetheless, the Hong Kong-listed shares have risen 16% this year,
outperforming other car makers as well as the broader market. Surprisingly strong guidance on Tuesday went some way toward justifying that gain: BYD expects net profit this quarter to more than double year over year. China’s car sales have improved in April
as people have returned to work, but there also are other reasons. New products have helped increase profit margins for BYD’s handset-components business, which still accounts for more than 40% of revenue. The company also may be getting a boost—potentially
a big one—from selling medical masks, having built production lines in February.” [Wall Street Journal,
4/28/20 (=)]
Research and analysis
Will COVID-19 Sound The Permanent Death Knell For Public Transit?
According to Forbes, “During the virus crisis, ridership and service in both public transit and taxis (including Uber/Lyft LYFT) has fallen off a cliff. Scooter micromobility has
plunged, too. People don’t want to get into a vehicle with others, or where unknown others just were. Of course, far few people are travelling. If they have access to a private car, that’s what they’re using. Because travel is so low, that works fine, as roads
are empty and parking is plentiful. Green Bay Metro shut down entirely. What happens when travel is restored? It won’t happen overnight — many people were restricting travel well before the lockdowns, and many companies had switched to work-from-home in advance
as well. In time, it will increase, though some wonder if work-from-home will become a new normal that permanently dents traffic. Many doubt that — traffic finds a way to expand to fill the capacity available. Even so, much of the fear of shared vehicles will
remain. We’ll know that the virus is still out there, just beaten back for a while. We’ll be keeping it in check not with a lockdown, but with masks, social distancing and good hygiene, at least until a vaccine or treatment. The at-risk: Those over 55 or with
pre-existing conditions, will remain just as cautious. To a large extent, those taking public transit will be those without much of a choice. (That’s partly true already in many towns, but the factor will be multiplied.) Public transportation has been on its
way to a crisis and revolution, and the pandemic lockdown will hasten that and put it into sharp relief.” [Forbes, 4/28/20 (=)]
Early Signs Show Driving Returns But Not Transit.
According to Axios, “One thing that will affect post-pandemic oil demand and carbon emissions is how quickly — and how much — driving ultimately bounces back compared to other modes
of moving around. Driving the news: Rough proxy data via Apple provides early signs that driving is starting to come back in a number of U.S. cities, while light rail and bus use basically isn’t (yet). The chart above shows a few cities I looked at using this
interactive online tool from Apple that shows the results of changes in the number of requests for directions to Apple Maps. Why it matters: Shelter-in-place restrictions worldwide have radically cut down on travel during the pandemic, but it’s not yet clear
if post-crisis travel patterns and decisions will ever be completely the same. Where it stands: A much clearer picture will emerge in the months and years ahead. But already there are other signs that car travel is beginning to come back. Data provided to
Axios by the Google-owned navigation app Waze is another proxy for driving levels in the same cities charted above. The reductions on April 22 were less severe in all the cities than peak declines from a February baseline. (Peak declines occurred from late
March through mid-April, depending on the city.) The intrigue: There’s all kinds of variable and uncertainties. We’re in the early stages. But the future could mean... Some people avoiding mass transit, at least for a time, which adds to vehicle use and traffic.
Yet working from home and other behaviors that put downward pressure on car travel could remain post-crisis.” [Axios,
4/28/20 (=)]
Chad Ellwood
Senior Research Associate
Climate Action Campaign
202.448.2877 ext. 119