Clean Car Standards
Critics Fire Legal Darts At Trump's Calif. Waiver
Revocation. According to E&E News, “The
Trump administration’s revocation of California’s Clean Air Act waiver — which lets the state set its own standards for automotive greenhouse gases and zero-emission vehicles — will turn back the clock on climate action and public health, according to briefs
filed in federal court yesterday by foes of the move. A coalition of blue states, environmentalists and California air regulators sued the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration over the revocation, insisting that the agencies lack authority to circumvent
a decades-old waiver granted by the Clean Air Act (Climatewire, June 30). Climate scientists, members of Congress, the rideshare company Lyft and other groups came to the defense of California’s standards in multiple ‘friend of the court’ briefs filed at the
U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on Monday. Groups like the American Lung Association and American Medical Association say the adverse public health effects of the waiver revocation are ‘overwhelmingly’ clear. ‘Without the innovative
GHG and ZEV regulations, California may not be able to achieve compliance with various ambient air quality standards, endangering the health of its citizens and continuing to put it in violation of CAA requirements,’ they wrote. ‘California is home to sixteen
regions classified by EPA as ozone nonattainment areas — more than any other state,’ they continued. ‘These regions are also among the most densely populated nonattainment areas in the U.S.’ The administration and its backers say national standards will save
Americans money at the gas pump and that NHTSA preemption rules give EPA authority to take away the waiver as part of the Trump administration’s new Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient Vehicles Rule (Greenwire, Sept. 19, 2019).” [E&E News,
7/7/20
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States
Op-Ed: Connecticut’s Vehicle Fleet Should Be All
Electric. There’s No Reason To Wait. According
to an op-ed by Analiese Paik in the Hartford Courant, “The Department of Energy and Environmental Protection has published a disappointingly anemic plan to electrify transportation in our state. The overdue EV Roadmap has been put out in the face of a climate
and health crisis that will only be worsened by its lack of significant recommendations. The plan is a roadmap to business as usual, one that refuses to own the urgent need for transformative change. The risk calculus behind this EV Roadmap is all wrong. Our
true risk lies not in the prospect of misguided actions, but rather in the disastrous outcomes that will be caused by inaction. In its insistence on the need for further analysis, the EV Roadmap represents a classic case of ‘analysis paralysis’ — akin to pulling
back the reins on a horse when the barn is on fire. The time for studies and analysis is long past. We need bold, systemic changes. Not business as usual, but rather the opposite. The DEEP should flip its state fleet electrification transition plan on its
head. The current goal is for 5 percent of Connecticut’s new state-owned vehicles to be electric in 2020. That is far too modest; instead of such complacent incrementalism, let’s commit to all new fleet vehicles being 100% battery electric or plug-in hybrid
electric, with exceptions made only in cases where electric aren’t available. The need to get there couldn’t be clearer or more urgent. Reducing atmospheric CO2 is a climate emergency. We’re at 417 parts per million, and scientists have warned us that 450
ppm is the required limit to prevent calamitous warming.” [Hartford Courant,
7/6/20
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Auto Manufacturers
This Might Be The Worst Time Ever To Buy Tesla Stock.
According to Barron’s, “Tesla’s gains have pushed shares about as far away from Wall Street’s average price target as they ever get.
That could be a risk for bullish investors. Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) has gained about 55% over the past month, closing up 13.5% Monday at $1,371.58, a record. JMP Securities analyst Joe Osha was the latest catalyst, raising his price target to $1,500 a share
from $1,000, after Tesla reported delivery numbers for the second quarter last week that were far better than expected. He rates Tesla stock the equivalent of Buy. Tesla said it delivered more than 90,000 cars, compared with a top Wall Street estimate of 86,000,
according to FactSet. The question for investors now is how high can Tesla stock go? It is hard to value Tesla using traditional valuation metrics. Shares trade for about 100 times estimated 2021 earnings—far higher than most automotive companies, which often
trade for single-digit price-to-earnings ratios. But Tesla is growing much faster than its peers. That comparison isn’t the only difficultly. Tesla earnings estimates also vary wildly. The Street’s 2021 earnings estimates, for instance, have gone from roughly
$9 a share to $15 a share and back to about $11 a share over the past year. That plays havoc with projected PE ratios. One way to pick
entry points for Tesla stock is with analyst price targets—adjusted for the reality of Tesla trading, of course. Barron’s wrote on March 20 that it was one of the best times to buy Tesla shares ever because Tesla was trading below its average analyst price
target. That doesn’t usually happen for the stock.” [Barron’s, 7/6/20
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Audi To Showcase Next-Gen EV Technology With Possible A9 E-Tron, Due In 2024.
According to Electrek, “In late May, Audi announced the launch of a new agile team to push the envelope on electric and autonomous technology.
Volkswagen’s luxury brand said the so-called Artemis project would work on a pioneering vehicle. Autocar reports today that Audi will develop an all-electric flagship sedan to showcase that technology. The first vehicle, which would be introduced in about
2024, could take the form of an Audi A9 e-tron. The Artemis project will also leverage concept versions of all-electric race and off-road vehicles that could be put into production. While 2024 seems far away, Artemis is a new project. Its goal is to introduce
speed and innovation by remaining separate from the Volkswagen Group’s substantial existing EV efforts. VW plans to introduce 75 new electric vehicles by 2029. Markus Duesmann, who was installed as Audi’s CEO on April 1, set up Artemis to break through the
company’s bureaucracy and ‘implement additional high-tech benchmarks without jeopardizing the manageability of existing projects.’ He said that the new group would also use rapid prototyping methods to develop new business models. According to Autocar, the
new flagship model will take inspiration from the 2017 Audi Aicon concept car. The electric flagship model will employ the company’s most advanced drivetrain, battery cell technology, and autonomous driving features. It will feature 5G connectivity, Car-to-X
communications, and augmented reality.” [Electrek, 7/6/20
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Porsche Reaches Milestone For New Electric Macan Production.
According to Electrek, “Porsche announced that it has reached a new production milestone of its new electric Macan at its Leipzig, Germany,
factory. The German automaker is already having some success with the Taycan, but the next few years are expected to bring a much greater wave of electrification. Macan is going all-electric, and Porsche is currently preparing its Leipzig factory to produce
the electric SUV. Today, the automaker announced that it completed the new buildings for the production. Gerd Rupp, chairman of the executive board at Porsche Leipzig GmbH, commented: Over the past few weeks, we have reached some important milestones on our
way to becoming an electromobility site. The period of time between now and the start of production of the next Macan generation is certainly going to be a challenge. However, it is also an opportunity to future-proof the plant and to prove ourselves as a
team. They couldn’t officially launch the new body shop due to the global pandemic, but they still got a visit from Mayor Burkhard Jung. The mayor commented: Porsche in Leipzig has evolved from an assembly plant to a technology driver for the entire European
automotive industry. The milestones for developing the drive technologies of the future are being set right here in Leipzig. They explain a few more things that they are working on at the Leipzig factory: In addition to the work on the new body shop, the assembly
line is being modified significantly. Porsche is expanding the existing production line and has scheduled this work to fit in with the upcoming summer plant shutdown.” [Electrek,
7/6/20
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Why Shares Of Tesla, Nio, And Other Electric-Vehicle Makers Are Skyrocketing.
According to Fortune, “Share prices of electric-vehicle makers zoomed on Monday despite little news beyond last week’s impressive quarterly
results from leading players Tesla and Nio. The stock of Tesla, which said last week that it had delivered almost 91,000 vehicles in the second quarter, jumped 13% on Monday, closing at an all-time high of $1,371.58 and marking a 55% gain over just the past
month. Meanwhile, Chinese automaker Nio, which has been challenging Tesla in China with futuristic-looking SUVs, saw its shares do even better after reporting record results for June. Its stock rose 23% to $11.51 on Monday, just below its all-time high, to
more than double the price a month ago. The strong sales results from Tesla and Nio amid the COVID-19 pandemic came even as the overall global car industry suffers. Second-quarter sales for General Motors, Toyota, and Fiat Chrysler slipped 33% or more. Several
analysts raised their price targets on Tesla on Monday, including JMP Securities and J.P. Morgan. The big gains in the stocks of electric-vehicle makers have pushed their market values sky-high, alarming some analysts. They’re concerned that Tesla’s shares,
in particular, are in bubble territory and that they may eventually pop. ‘We see a lot more that can go wrong than can go right as the company transitions into Mr. Musk’s greater vision,’ Cowen research analyst Jeffrey Osborne wrote. His price target of $300
for the company’s stock is more than 75% below its current price. The stock price gains of EV makers on Monday were even sharper among less well known and less highly valued companies.” [Fortune,
7/6/20
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VW Starts Converting Another Factory For Electric Car Production.
According to Electrek, “After the Zwickau factory, VW has started converting another of its factories from gasoline and diesel vehicle
production to electric vehicle production. Volkswagen has one of the most aggressive electrification plans amongst established automakers. It was the first major automaker to completely convert a key factory from producing gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles.
VW started converting the Zwickau factory last year and it recently produced its very last engine. From now on, it will only produce the ID.3 electric car and add new EV models over time. Now the German automaker announced today that the conversion of its
Emden plant has already started and the first electric cars are to roll off the production line there from 2022. Ralf Brandstätter, CEO of the Volkswagen brand, commented: ‘With the conversion of our plant at Emden into a production location for electric vehicles,
Volkswagen is forcing the pace of system change. All in all, the company will invest about €1 billion in the transformation of the factory. Emden will be developed into a cornerstone of our electric strategy.’ It’s going to be VW’s first plant in Lower Saxony
to produce electric vehicles in large volumes. The first vehicle to produced at the facility is going to be the ID.4. The VW ID.4 is expected to be a small SUV, roughly the size of the Tesla Model Y, with over 250 miles of range and a starting price around
$40,000. While VW is talking about the conversion of the Emden factory for production, the ID.4 is also an important vehicle for VW because it is going to be its first next-gen EV produced in the US – starting next year.” [Electrek,
7/6/20
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Jay Leno Dives Into The World Of Subscription-Based EV Company Canoo.
According to CNET, “Back in September, I went down to Torrance, California to Canoo to take a look at what this subscription-only electric
vehicle startup was doing. I determined that not only was its bread loaf-shaped van thing the second coming of the Toyota Previa, but that it had some interesting tech going on that didn’t seem all that crazy. Now everyone’s favorite occasionally problematic
internet car uncle, Jay Leno has decided to go down and check things out for himself, and he brought a video crew. The result is a 41-minute cringefest, but it shows off a lot of what I saw last year in a more advanced state of completion. Even better, at
first, we get to see the beta test Canoo (because the company and the vehicle have the same name) rolling slowly down the streets of a business park with a police escort and Mr. Leno behind the wheel, and while it definitely looks futuristic compared to other
vehicles, it doesn’t seem totally out of place either. In case you need a reminder, the Canoo is doing more differently than its styling, compared to other vehicles. For example, it’s the first vehicle approved by the DOT and NHTSA to have a purely steer-by-wire
steering system. There is no mechanical connection between the steering wheel and the steering rack. This is cool because it means there’s no steering column to block the view from the front of the vehicle. Another nifty feature is the designers’ decision
to forgo any kind of interior screen. Their reasoning is that car infotainment tech develops at a much slower pace than other electronics, so why put something in a car that’s basically out of date by the time it goes on sale when your phone already has plenty
of speed and a great screen?” [CNET, 7/6/20
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Audi Electrifies Bayern Munich Training Grounds For Team’s Coming Audi e-trons.
According to Clean Technica, “As the world knows by now, Volkswagen Group’s big focus for the decade is to surf a big wave in the fast-growing
electric vehicle market. It intends to have 25% of its 2025 sales coming from 100% electric vehicles. Audi has been a top pace setter for Volkswagen Group, with the Audi e-tron being the 4th best selling plug-in vehicle in Europe in the first 5 months of the
year, right behind its Volkswagen e-Golf cousin. Furthermore, it is by far the best selling EV in its class (see link above) and by far the best selling vehicle in the most mature EV market in the world, Norway. Further demonstrating the electrification story
it wants the world to see, Audi is putting electric car charging stations around the FC Bayern Munich training grounds. Last week, ‘Karl-Heinz Rummenigge, Chairman of the Executive Board of FC Bayern München AG, Oliver Kahn, Member of the Executive Board of
FC Bayern München AG, and Audi Board Member for Sales Hildegard Wortmann gave the go-ahead for the construction of 38 charging points.’ The branding push is significantly bigger than this, though. The world famous Bayern Munich players will drive the Audi
e-tron to games. More than half of the team’s fleet will switch to e-trons. ‘The charging points are to go online in late summer – just in time for the start of the next Bundesliga season, from which point the professional soccer players of FC Bayern will
be driving the Audi e-tron, the brand’s first fully electric SUV. The record-holding players and their team will be able to charge their future electric cars with up to 150 kilowatts in the underground garage at the home of FC Bayern on Säbener Strasse.’”
[Clean Technica, 7/6/20
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Tesla Shines During The Pandemic As Other Automakers Struggle.
According to the New York Times, “In early 2019, Tesla seemed to be stuck in a ditch. After a steep drop in sales at the beginning of
that year, the company was scrambling to raise cash, slashing costs and closing dealerships. It slowed spending on new models, and even analysts who had once been very bullish about the company’s prospects soured on it. It didn’t help that Tesla’s chief executive,
Elon Musk, was regularly sparring on Twitter with critics and securities regulators alike. But the electric car pioneer seems to finally have hit its stride. Despite the coronavirus pandemic, its sales are holding up fairly well, with growth in China and other
overseas markets offsetting a slowdown in the United States, where the virus remains a serious drag on the economy. After it reported a profit and sizable cash balance in the first quarter, analysts have grown increasingly confident that Tesla will come out
of the pandemic stronger than automakers that have vastly larger sales and production. ‘If you go back a year and a half, the question was can these guys make it with the kind of capital expenditures they need to do?’ said Joseph Osha, an analyst at JMP Securities.
‘That’s no longer a question.’ On Thursday, Tesla delivered the latest batch of promising news. It said it had delivered 90,650 cars in the second quarter, down just 5 percent from a year earlier. It had sold 88,496 cars in the first quarter of 2020, when
most of the company’s operations were largely unaffected by the virus. The decline was considerably smaller than many analysts expected and much better than the numbers reported by established automakers. General Motors, Ford Motor and Fiat Chrysler said this
week that their U.S. sales had fallen 30 percent or more in the second quarter.” [New York Times,
7/6/20
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Chart Of The Day: Tesla's Fresh Stock Surge.
According to Axios, “Tesla’s stock reached fresh records in the holiday-shortened week, helped along by higher than expected second-quarter
delivery numbers the electric automaker reported early Thursday. The big picture: Morgan Stanley analysts, in a note, said the ‘demand for Tesla products has been remarkably resilient’ considering the pandemic. They point out that Tesla’s deliveries were down
just 5% from a year earlier, compared to 30% to 40% for other automakers. Quick take: The market seems to be shrugging off CEO Elon Musk’s volatile social media behavior, with the stock up higher in pre-market trading.” [Axios,
7/6/20
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Electric Vehicles
Electric Vehicles Are Starting To Buoy The Global Metals Market.
According to Yahoo Finance, “The market gloom over the metals that will power the cars of the future is starting to lift. Supply overhangs
and then the coronavirus pandemic had crushed short-term prospects for the minerals used to make rechargeable batteries. But new government commitments to green transport in China and Europe, as well as curtailments to mining and future investments, have led
to a growing consensus the markets are bottoming out. Add in the fact that battery technologies are continuing to get cheaper, and there’s reason to be bullish ‘over the next few years once we get through the current predicament,’ said Chris Berry, president
of House Mountain Partners, an industry consultant. ‘The European Union, in particular, is essentially rebuilding their automotive supply chains around battery metals, and incentivizing EV adoption,’ Berry said in a phone interview. ‘The Chinese have re-instituted
the EV subsidy regime as well.’ Exuberance about the future for electric-powered vehicles led to an oversupply of metals such as lithium and cobalt, sending prices tumbling by more than half from their 2018 peaks. Then just as some optimism was returning to
the markets, the coronavirus pandemic triggered a demand slowdown that clouded recovery prospects for those metals as well as nickel. While shorter-term forecasts have been reduced, the longer-range outlook remains impressive. BloombergNEF predicts global
electric-vehicle sales will return to growth over the next few years, rising from 2 million last year to 8.5 million by 2025, then climb to about 26 million by 2030.” [Yahoo Finance,
7/6/20
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Why Plan For Fleet Electrification In The Middle Of A Pandemic?
According to Clean Technica, “Oil prices have been wobbling all the way through the COVID-19 crisis, which is good news for fleet owners
on the prowl for cheap gas, and bad news for fans of fleet electrification. However, the electrification trend is still carrying on, with the latest example being the leading US utility Exelon. The big question is, why? Exelon has had its hands full of late,
between decommissioning the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania and shutting down the fish lift at the Conowingo Dam hydropower generating station in Maryland, all as the COVID-19 crisis continues to unspool across the US. Nevertheless, the company
found time to formulate a fleet electrification plan that potentially involves thousands of new electric vehicles hitting the road in the coming years. The company’s current fleet totals more than 7,200 rolling units. It set the goal posts at 30% fleet electrification
by 2025, with 50% electrification by 2030. That is roughly consistent with the marker laid out in a recent BNEF analysis, which forecasts that electric vehicles would total 58% of all new car sales by 2040. The devil is in the details, though. Exelon is counting
on gas-electric hybrids and auxiliary equipment to carry some of the load. Under Exelon’s road map, only light duty vehicles that reach the end of their useful lifespan by 2025 will be replaced with hybrids or full electric vehicles. The company expects to
complete the rollover of all light duty vehicles by 2030. Heavy duty vehicles are a whole ‘nother kettle of fish. Garbage trucks, excavators, and other heavy duty vehicles are becoming electrified, but bucket trucks and other utility vehicles are in a class
of their own.” [Clean Technica, 7/6/20
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Electric Vehicles Are Starting To Buoy The Global Metals Market.
According to Bloomberg, “The market gloom over the metals that will power the cars of the future is starting to lift. Supply overhangs
and then the coronavirus pandemic had crushed short-term prospects for the minerals used to make rechargeable batteries. But new government commitments to green transport in China and Europe, as well as curtailments to mining and future investments, have led
to a growing consensus the markets are bottoming out. Add in the fact that battery technologies are continuing to get cheaper, and there’s reason to be bullish ‘over the next few years once we get through the current predicament,’ said Chris Berry, president
of House Mountain Partners, an industry consultant. ‘The European Union, in particular, is essentially rebuilding their automotive supply chains around battery metals, and incentivizing EV adoption,’ Berry said in a phone interview. ‘The Chinese have re-instituted
the EV subsidy regime as well.’ Exuberance about the future for electric-powered vehicles led to an oversupply of metals such as lithium and cobalt, sending prices tumbling by more than half from their 2018 peaks. Then just as some optimism was returning to
the markets, the coronavirus pandemic triggered a demand slowdown that clouded recovery prospects for those metals as well as nickel. While shorter-term forecasts have been reduced, the longer-range outlook remains impressive. BloombergNEF predicts global
electric-vehicle sales will return to growth over the next few years, rising from 2 million last year to 8.5 million by 2025, then climb to about 26 million by 2030.” [Bloomberg,
7/6/20
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Research And Analysis
There Are Many Routes To Sustainable Trucking — The Industry Needs All Of Them.
According to GreenBiz, “Mike Roeth describes trucking’s current transition to more sustainable operations as ‘the messy middle.’ As executive director of the North American Council
for Freight Efficiency and truck operations leader at Rocky Mountain Institute, Roeth sees the multitudes of opportunities created by new technologies, as well as the many barriers to the trucking industry’s sustainability goals. New innovations are coming
out every week, Roeth noted last week during GreenBiz’s Real-life Lessons for Trucking’s Clean Future webcast. But the ability to leverage those new technologies in the way the trucking industry needs requires a lot of investment and time. For example, electric
vehicles are a great step but the hurdle is the charging infrastructure, professional Hirschbach driver John Vesey pointed out. ‘My biggest worry is getting to that fuel source and making sure that fuel source is available,’ he said during the same webcast.
‘In all reality, as long as the infrastructure is there, I’m all for using new fuel sources. Diesel is stinky.’ Andreas Lips, CEO of Greenlots, is working on that exact issue. The company is part of the Shell Group, and with its scale hopes it can relieve
driver anxiety over charging and make electric fleets more attainable. ‘It’s all about making it easier for drivers to switch to an EV,’ Lips said. ‘Many people haven’t made the switch and reasons are price and range anxiety. There has been a lot of progress
made on price, and our role is helping on that range anxiety at scale.’ But once the charging infrastructure is in place, the companies will need software to keep stations from overwhelming the grid. Logistics giant UPS uses a system that controls the flow
of electrons, diverting power from fully charged trucks to those with partially or fully depleted batteries.” [GreenBiz,
7/6/20 (=)]
Chad Ellwood
Senior Research Associate
Climate Action Campaign
202.448.2877 ext. 119