NAVIGATOR A.M.

Good morning! Today’s Navigator A.M. contains data from a NEW survey conducted May 4 – 8 with new tracking on how Americans are responding to the default debate, who Americans trust more to handle the issue of avoiding default and who they would blame if a default occurred, and messaging guidance on how to communicate about the Republicans' plan most effectively.

Read on for the latest Navigator data…

TODAY’S BIG TAKEAWAYS: WHILE MOST SUPPORT RAISING THE DEBT LIMIT, DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS TRAIL REPUBLICANS ON PARTY TRUST TO AVOID DEFAULT; HIGHLIGHTING REPUBLICANS’ PROPOSED CUTS VASTLY EXPANDS OPPOSITION TO THEIR APPROACH AND INCREASES BLAME IN THEM FOR A DEFAULT

VIEW THE REPORT HERE 

Americans only oppose Republicans’ budget plan when told about specific cuts. Assessments of congressional Republicans’ budget plan without any context offered earns roughly even ratings (net +1; 39 percent support – 38 percent oppose, with an additional 23 percent who aren’t sure); yet, when communicating that their plan “would cut 22 percent for almost everything aside from military spending, including health care, schools, and law enforcement, while also protecting tax cuts for the rich,” the plan becomes opposed by a two-to-one margin (net -29; 29 percent support – 58 percent oppose). Demographic groups that shift by even greater margins include non-very conservative Republicans (by a net 51 points, from net +56 to net +5), white non-college educated Americans (by a net 42 points, from net +20 to net -22), those working in the service industry (by a net 38 points, from net -5 to net -43), and Americans over the age of 65 years old (by a net 35 points, from net +5 to net -30).

Taking away Medicaid, cutting funding for food inspectors that would lead to shortages and higher prices on groceries, and eliminating K-12 school teachers are the top concerns with the Republican budget plan. More than four in five Americans find a number of statements about Republicans’ budget plan to be concerning, including that it “would take Medicaid away from as many as 21 million people according to the Department of Health and Human Services, including kids with disabilities, seniors in assisted living, and pregnant women” (85 percent overall find this concerning, including 62 percent who find it “very concerning”), that it "would cut funding for food safety inspectors, leading to shortages and higher prices on meat, poultry, and eggs” (85 percent overall find this concerning, including 61 percent who find it “very concerning”), and that it “would cut funding for K-12 education, eliminating 108,000 teachers’ jobs and impacting over 32 million kids” (84 percent overall find this concerning, including 59 percent who find it “very concerning”).

• In a forced choice asking about potential outcomes that would be worst for the country, a majority of Americans say that “cutting Medicaid, veterans’ benefits, and law enforcement funding” would be worst (52 percent), followed by “defaulting on the country’s bills” (34 percent); just 14 percent say “raising the debt ceiling” would be worst for the country. Majorities of Democrats (53 percent) and independents (60 percent) say cuts to Medicaid, veterans’ benefits, and law enforcement would be worst for the country, as do a plurality of Republicans (48 percent). Only one in five Republicans say raising the debt ceiling would be the worst of these outcomes for the country (20 percent).

However, Republicans currently hold a 10-point party trust advantage over President Biden and Democrats on the issue of “avoiding default on the national debt” (35 percent Biden/Democrats – 45 percent Republicans). Republicans are more trusting of their own party to handle the issue (net +75; 5 percent Biden/Democrats – 80 percent Republicans) than Democrats are in President Biden and the Democratic Party (net +48; 66 percent Biden/Democrats – 18 percent Republicans). Nearly three in five independents don’t know enough to say which party they trust to avoid default (57 percent), while the Republican Party has an advantage among those who have trust in one party or another (net -15; 14 percent Biden/Democrats – 29 percent Republicans). 

• Party trust in Biden and Democrats relative to Republicans significantly underperforms party identification by racial demographics, including a 26-point party trust advantage among Black Americans (compared to a 46-point Democratic party identification advantage), a 5-point deficit among Hispanic Americans (compared to a 38-point Democratic party identification advantage), and a 4-point deficit among Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (compared to a 27-point Democratic party identification advantage).

• Yet, by a 21-point margin, majorities of Americans support raising the debt ceiling when framed as “the debt limit is the maximum amount of money the U.S. government can borrow to pay its bills… the government has already reached this amount, which means the debt limit needs to be raised in order to avoid defaulting on its bills” (52 percent support – 31 percent oppose). This includes seven in ten Democrats (net +58; 71 percent support – 13 percent oppose) and nearly two in five Republicans (net -13; 37 percent support – 50 percent oppose); however, a plurality of independents are not sure (39 percent), with net support underwater by 8 points (27 percent support – 35 percent oppose). 

• Overall support is roughly equivalent when asking the same framing, but using the term “debt ceiling” instead of “debt limit” (net +18; 53 percent support – 35 percent oppose).

While Americans are split on who they would blame if the country defaults, communicating about Republicans’ approach shifts blame significantly toward them. In an initial ask of who the public would blame if Congress fails to pass a bill to deal with the debt ceiling to avoid a default, a narrow plurality would place the blame more on Biden and Democrats (32 percent), while 28 percent say Republicans in Congress and another 28 percent would blame both equally. After exposure to what programs would be cut in the Republicans’ plan, blame toward Republicans in Congress increases by 12 points to 40 percent, compared to just 28 percent who blame Biden and Democrats more and 25 percent who blame both parties equally.

• Demographics groups that have even higher shares that shift toward blaming Republicans if Congress fails to avoid default tend to be more ideologically progressive, including women under the age of 55 (26 percent), non-liberal Democrats (25 percent), Democratic women (25 percent), and Americans under the age of 35 (24 percent).

• Respondents were also asked to rank up to two behaviors by Republicans in Congress which were seen as most concerning on this issue, with the top including that “Republicans in Congress don’t want to negotiate with Democrats because they want to protect tax breaks for the rich and corporations” (35 percent overall, including 53 percent of Democrats, 33 percent of independents, and 68 percent of those who move toward blaming Republicans for a default after messaging), followed by “Republicans in Congress are just trying to use this issue to score political points and hurt President Biden’s standing” (26 percent overall, including 40 percent of Democrats and 24 percent of independents).

Next week, we will release additional results from this survey on perceptions of recent changes in the media landscape.

Have a great weekend,

Bryan, Ian, & the Navigator Research Team

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